← Raphael’s WorkspaceMMACRO VIEWS

INSTITUTIONAL MACRO INTELLIGENCE

Market pricing.
House views.
One screen.

Compare current public macro calls from leading sell-side and buy-side institutions — with dates, sources and gaps made explicit.

HOUSE VIEWS17 SEP 2026PUBLIC SOURCES · MANUAL SNAPSHOT

OVERVIEW / DECISION LAYER

What matters now

Market pricingHouse consensusOfficial release

MOST CROWDED / STRONGEST

HOUSE

Soft landing

89%US 2026 growth regime

MOST DISPUTED

HOUSE

Mixed / firm

50%US dollar direction

MARKET / HOUSE GAP

MARKET

10Y spot vs target

+51bp5.01% official spot versus the 4.50% median house target

CHANGE LOG

Since 4 Sep

4 SIGNALS
MONETARY POLICYFederal Reserve

3.50–3.75%Hiked 25bp to 3.75–4.00%

↗
MONETARY POLICYFOMC median path

3.8% end-20264.1% · one more hike

↗
RATES10Y Treasury spot

4.79% on 2 Sep5.01%

↗
MONETARY POLICYMorgan Stanley

Hold through 2026Sep + Dec hikes

↗

FORWARD CALENDAR

Next catalysts

OFFICIAL
Q2 GDP + August PCE

Growth revision and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge

↗
US payrolls

First labor check after the September hike

↗
FOMC minutes

Reveal the debate behind the unanimous September hike

↗
US CPI

Key test for the projected second 2026 hike

↗
FOMC meeting

BofA’s additional-hike call faces its first test

↗

Consensus strength measures agreement among explicit, comparable public calls. Market pricing and official releases are reference signals and are never counted as institutional forecasts.

REGIME LENS / PORTFOLIO SENSITIVITY

Scenario map

MODAL HOUSE VIEW
INFLATION →GROWTH →

SELECTED REGIME

Reflation

STRONGER GROWTH
HIGHER INFLATION

Resilient activity and sticky prices leave September’s hike followed by another move, while the term premium remains elevated.

CONFIRMING SIGNALS

  • Fed projects 2.3% growth
  • PCE median rises to 3.7%
  • 10Y yield above 5%

ALIGNED HOUSE VIEWS

  • Goldman Sachs
  • J.P. Morgan
  • Barclays
  • Morgan Stanley
  • Deutsche Bank
  • HSBC
  • UBS
  • Nomura

PORTFOLIO INTERPRETATION

Reflation
RatesNEGATIVE

Short duration; long-end yields remain vulnerable

CreditMIXED

Carry helps, but refinancing sensitivity rises

EquitiesMIXED

Pricing power matters; long-duration valuations face pressure

USDPOSITIVE

Relative-rate support points to a firmer dollar

Directional sensitivities describe how this regime would typically transmit across assets. They are a research lens, not a recommendation or probability forecast.

20 FIRMS · 5 THEMES · SOURCED CALLS ONLY
MARKET BENCHMARKFed: 3.75–4.00% · SEP: 4.1%

The FOMC unanimously raised the target range by 25bp on 16 September. Its 4.1% year-end median implies one more quarter-point hike; the table shows each institution’s remaining path after the completed September move.

Open benchmark ↗

MONETARY POLICY / 20-FIRM VIEW MAP

Fed path after Sep 2026 hike

Modal view Above / hawkish Below / dovish

VIEW DISTRIBUTION

1 more hike
67%
Hold after Sep
25%
2 more hikes
8%

Percentages use only explicit, comparable public calls in the current set. Qualitative views, unmatched horizons and firms without a verified public call stay visible in the table but are excluded from the calculation.

SORT:
RATIONALE & SOURCE
Apollo
Buy-sideJun 2026Higher for longer

Expects persistent inflation and higher-for-longer rates; no discrete meeting or year-end target is public.2026 Mid-Year Outlook ↗

Bank of America
Sell-side14 Sep 20262 more hikes

Forecast three 2026 hikes in September, October and December; two remain after the September move.Reuters brokerage factbox ↗

Barclays
Sell-side31 Aug 20261 more hike

Forecast September and December hikes; the remaining call is a quarter-point move in December.Reuters forecast revision ↗

BlackRock
Buy-sideJul 2026Hold

Underlying inflation remains too firm for easing, but the public tactical view stops short of forecasting a 2026 hike.Weekly Commentary ↗

Blackstone
Buy-side—No public call

No current, theme-specific public call has been verified. The firm remains visible so the coverage gap is explicit.

BNP Paribas
Sell-side14 Sep 2026Hold after Sep

Its latest published path contained one 2026 hike. The timing had been December, so a post-meeting refresh is still needed.Reuters brokerage factbox ↗

Bridgewater
Buy-side—No public call

No current, theme-specific public call has been verified. The firm remains visible so the coverage gap is explicit.

CACIB
Sell-side5 Feb 2026Hold

Crédit Agricole’s published scenario assumes a pause in Fed easing through 2026, with slight easing deferred to 2027.2026 economic scenario ↗

Citadel
Buy-side27 Jul 2026Hawkish bias

Citadel Securities had pressed for an earlier hike on inflation-credibility grounds; no newer discrete year-end path is public.Latest public Fed call ↗

Citi
Sell-side14 Sep 2026Hold after Sep

Latest reported forecast contained one 25bp hike in September, implying no additional 2026 move after it was delivered.Reuters brokerage factbox ↗

Deutsche Bank
Sell-side14 Sep 20261 more hike

Latest reported path was hikes in September and December, leaving one additional move this year.Reuters brokerage factbox ↗

Goldman Sachs
Sell-side14 Sep 20261 more hike

Latest reported path was September and December hikes, leaving one additional 25bp move after the completed September increase.Reuters brokerage survey ↗

HSBC
Sell-side14 Sep 20261 more hike

Latest reported path was September and December hikes; one remains after the September increase.Reuters brokerage factbox ↗

J.P. Morgan
Sell-side14 Sep 20261 more hike

Forecast quarter-point hikes in September and December; one remains after the September decision.Reuters brokerage survey ↗

Morgan Stanley
Sell-side15 Sep 20261 more hike

Revised to September and December hikes as disinflation became slower and less convincing; one move remains.Reuters forecast revision ↗

Nomura
Sell-side14 Sep 20261 more hike

Latest reported path was September and December hikes, leaving one additional quarter-point move.Reuters brokerage factbox ↗

PIMCO
Buy-side20 Jul 2026Hold

Baseline is steady policy through 2026 as inflation gradually eases.PIMCO Perspectives ↗

Standard Chartered
Sell-side24 Jul 2026Refresh pending

No newer public, institution-specific year-end path was verified after the September hike; the prior July view is retained for provenance only.Weekly Market View ↗

UBS
Sell-side7 Sep 20261 more hike

Forecast 25bp hikes in September and December following stronger jobs data; one remains.Reuters forecast revision ↗

Wells Fargo
Sell-side14 Sep 2026Hold after Sep

Its latest reported forecast contained one 2026 hike, now delivered in September.Reuters brokerage factbox ↗

CONVICTION AT THE EDGES

Divergent views

6 NON-MODAL CALLS IN VIEW
ABOVE / HAWKISHBuy-side

Apollo

Higher for longer

Expects persistent inflation and higher-for-longer rates; no discrete meeting or year-end target is public.

Read source · Jun 2026 ↗
ABOVE / HAWKISHSell-side

Bank of America

2 more hikes

Forecast three 2026 hikes in September, October and December; two remain after the September move.

Read source · 14 Sep 2026 ↗
BELOW / DOVISHSell-side

BNP Paribas

Hold after Sep

Its latest published path contained one 2026 hike. The timing had been December, so a post-meeting refresh is still needed.

Read source · 14 Sep 2026 ↗
ABOVE / HAWKISHBuy-side

Citadel

Hawkish bias

Citadel Securities had pressed for an earlier hike on inflation-credibility grounds; no newer discrete year-end path is public.

Read source · 27 Jul 2026 ↗
BELOW / DOVISHSell-side

Citi

Hold after Sep

Latest reported forecast contained one 25bp hike in September, implying no additional 2026 move after it was delivered.

Read source · 14 Sep 2026 ↗
BELOW / DOVISHSell-side

Wells Fargo

Hold after Sep

Its latest reported forecast contained one 2026 hike, now delivered in September.

Read source · 14 Sep 2026 ↗

CROSS-FIRM WORKSPACE

Compare house views

3 / 4 FIRMS SELECTED

Select two to four firms. Each cell preserves the published call, source date and house wording; use the source link for the full original context.

THEME
Citi
J.P. Morgan
BlackRock
MONETARY POLICYFed path after Sep 2026 hikeConsensus: 1 more hike
SOURCE DATE · 14 Sep 2026PUBLISHED CALL

Hold after Sep

HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARY

Latest reported forecast contained one 25bp hike in September, implying no additional 2026 move after it was delivered.

SOURCE DATE · 14 Sep 2026PUBLISHED CALL

1 more hike

HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARY

Forecast quarter-point hikes in September and December; one remains after the September decision.

SOURCE DATE · Jul 2026PUBLISHED CALL

Hold

HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARY

Underlying inflation remains too firm for easing, but the public tactical view stops short of forecasting a 2026 hike.

RATES10Y UST outlookConsensus: 4.50%
SOURCE DATE · 15 Jul 2026PUBLISHED CALL

3.90%

HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARY

Explicit year-end 2026 target; the lowest current public target in this set.

SOURCE DATE · Jul 2026PUBLISHED CALL

4.70%

HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARY

Explicit year-end target, revised higher as rising policy yields, global factors and rich relative valuations anchor Treasury yields at elevated levels.

SOURCE DATE · Jul 2026PUBLISHED CALL

Underweight long

HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARY

Prefers short/medium Treasuries; sees long duration as a less reliable diversifier.

GROWTHUS 2026 growth regimeConsensus: Soft landing
SOURCE DATE · 15 Jul 2026PUBLISHED CALL

2.1% GDP

HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARY

Continued expansion, not recession; growth eases to 1.8% in 2027.

SOURCE DATE · Jun 2026PUBLISHED CALL

Resilient

HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARY

Limited recession risk and constructive credit backdrop.

SOURCE DATE · Jul 2026PUBLISHED CALL

Resilient / narrow

HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARY

Growth remains resilient but is increasingly concentrated.

PRICESUS inflation through Dec 2026Consensus: Sticky ~3%
SOURCE DATE · 15 Jul 2026PUBLISHED CALL

3.2% headline

HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARY

Full-year U.S. headline inflation forecast; expects moderation toward 1.7% in 2027.

SOURCE DATE · 9 Jul 2026PUBLISHED CALL

3.4% core PCE

HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARY

Year-end core PCE forecast, raised from 2.9% after the energy and supply shock.

SOURCE DATE · Jul 2026PUBLISHED CALL

Above pre-Covid

HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARY

Sees inflation settling above pre-pandemic norms as scarcity in power, labor and materials persists.

FXUS dollar directionConsensus: Mixed / firm
SOURCE DATE · 15 Jul 2026PUBLISHED CALL

DXY 100.88

HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARY

Explicit year-end DXY forecast.

NO VERIFIED CALL

—

This coverage gap remains explicit.

NO VERIFIED CALL

—

This coverage gap remains explicit.

Calls retain their published definitions and horizons. Empty cells mean no current public theme-specific view has been verified; summaries are clearly labelled where a short verbatim excerpt is not available.

RESEARCH UNIVERSE

20-firm coverage list

14 SELL-SIDE · 6 BUY-SIDE
J.P. MorganSell-sideCurrent public view
Goldman SachsSell-sideCurrent public view
CitiSell-sideCurrent public view
BarclaysSell-sideCurrent sourced view
Deutsche BankSell-sideCurrent public view
BNP ParibasSell-sideCurrent public view
HSBCSell-sideCurrent public view
Standard CharteredSell-sideCurrent public view
Morgan StanleySell-sideCurrent public view
Bank of AmericaSell-sideCurrent sourced view
Wells FargoSell-sideCurrent public view
UBSSell-sideCurrent public view
BlackRockBuy-sideCurrent public view
PIMCOBuy-sideCurrent public view
BlackstoneBuy-sideCurrent public view
BridgewaterBuy-sideNo public numeric target
CitadelBuy-sideCurrent sourced view
ApolloBuy-sideCurrent public view
CACIBSell-sidePublic 2026 scenario
NomuraSell-sideCurrent public view

A firm remains in the universe even when no recent primary public call is available. Private research can be added later from documents you provide; until then, the dashboard will not infer or fabricate a position.