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Market pricing.
House views.
One screen.
Compare current public macro calls from leading sell-side and buy-side institutions — with dates, sources and gaps made explicit.
HOUSE VIEWS29 OCT 2026PUBLIC SOURCES · MANUAL SNAPSHOT
OVERVIEW / DECISION LAYER
What matters now
Market pricingHouse consensusOfficial release
MOST DISPUTED
HOUSE4.60%
50%10Y UST outlookMARKET / HOUSE GAP
MARKET10Y spot vs target
+45bp5.05% official spot (28 Oct) versus the 4.60% median of six end-2026 point targetsCHANGE LOG
Latest verified signals
MONETARY POLICYFOMC
September +25bp hikeOctober hold, 10–2; two favored +25bp
RATES10Y Treasury spot
5.00% on 26 Oct5.05% on 28 Oct
MONETARY POLICYBank of America
October and December hikesOctober hike missed; December unconfirmed
RATES10Y Treasury spot
4.96% on 22 Oct5.00% on 26 Oct
MONETARY POLICYBlackRock
Qualitative hold rowOne more 2026 hike
MONETARY POLICYUBS
December hike base caseDecember hike retained
MONETARY POLICYPIMCO
Further 2026 hikeOctober hold; December +25bp
RATESBlackRock
Treasury upgradeShort-end preference maintained
RATESStandard Chartered
4.75–5.00% over 12 months5.00–5.25% near-term; different horizon
RATES10Y Treasury spot
5.10% on 15 Oct5.09% on 16 Oct
RATES10Y Treasury spot
5.19% on 14 Oct5.10% on 15 Oct
INFLATIONSeptember PPI
August final demand +0.5% m/mSeptember +1.3% m/m; +6.3% y/y
MONETARY POLICY / FXStandard Chartered
December hike; DXY pullback riskOctober hold, December hike; DXY 102–103
MONETARY POLICYCiti
No further 2026 hikeDecember +25bp
INFLATIONSeptember CPI
August headline +3.4% y/ySeptember +3.7% y/y; core +2.6%
RATES10Y Treasury spot
5.24% on 9 Oct5.19% on 14 Oct
FXStandard Chartered
No tracked short-term USD viewDXY firm; pullback risk near 103
RATESBlackRock
Long end pressuredUpgrade Treasuries as yields reset
POLICY / RATESCitadel Securities
Earlier inflation-credibility warningTighter-policy case; long-end yield pressure
RATES10Y Treasury spot
5.22% on 8 Oct5.24% on 9 Oct
GROWTH / INFLATIONCiti Wealth
No tracked Q4 portfolio viewPro-growth; higher-for-longer rates
GROWTH / INFLATIONMichigan survey
Sentiment 48.1; 1Y inflation 4.6%Sentiment 46.3; 1Y inflation 4.7%
GEOPOLITICS / RATESGoldman Sachs
Oil pass-through pressures yieldsOil and rates keep equity risk elevated
RATES10Y Treasury spot
5.31% on 5 Oct5.22% on 8 Oct
GEOPOLITICS / RATESGoldman Sachs
No tracked conflict viewOil pass-through pressures yields
FXBlackRock
No tracked USD viewResilient now; limited further upside
RATES10Y Treasury spot
5.28% on 2 Oct5.31% on 5 Oct
MONETARY POLICYUBS
December +25bpDecember retained; October less urgent
MONETARY POLICYGoldman Sachs
October +25bpMoved to December +25bp
GROWTHUS payrolls
+133k in August+29k in September
INFLATIONCore PCE
Fed 2026 median: 3.4%August actual: 3.0%
FORWARD CALENDAR
Next catalysts
FOMC meeting + projections
↗Tests the widely held December-hike call and updates the September dot plot
Q3 GDP + September PCE
↗Growth pulse and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge before December
US payrolls
↗Next labor-market test after September’s sharp slowdown
October CPI
↗Next consumer-price check after September’s acceleration
Consensus strength measures agreement among explicit, comparable public calls. Market pricing and official releases are reference signals and are never counted as institutional forecasts.
REGIME LENS / PORTFOLIO SENSITIVITY
Scenario map
INFLATION →GROWTH →
SELECTED REGIME
Reflation
HIGHER INFLATION
Resilient activity and sticky prices leave September’s hike followed by another move, while the term premium remains elevated.
CONFIRMING SIGNALS
- October FOMC held 3.75–4.00% by 10–2
- September CPI 3.7% y/y; PPI 6.3% y/y
- 10Y yield stands at 5.05%
ALIGNED HOUSE VIEWS
- Goldman Sachs
- J.P. Morgan
- Barclays
- Morgan Stanley
- Deutsche Bank
- HSBC
- UBS
- Nomura
- PIMCO
PORTFOLIO INTERPRETATION
ReflationRatesNEGATIVE
Short duration; long-end yields remain vulnerable
CreditMIXED
Carry helps, but refinancing sensitivity rises
EquitiesMIXED
Pricing power matters; long-duration valuations face pressure
USDPOSITIVE
Relative-rate support points to a firmer dollar
Directional sensitivities describe how this regime would typically transmit across assets. They are a research lens, not a recommendation or probability forecast.
MARKET BENCHMARKFed: 3.75–4.00% · SEP: 4.1%
On 28 October the FOMC held the 3.75–4.00% range by a 10–2 vote; Cook and Hammack preferred a 25bp hike. No new projections were released, so September’s 4.1% year-end median remains the latest official dot plot and implies one December hike. The split below counts 14 comparable published house paths remaining after the completed September move and October hold. BofA’s missed October call is shown but excluded pending a revised forecast; other older calls are flagged in their row notes.
Open benchmark ↗MONETARY POLICY / 20-FIRM VIEW MAP
Fed path after Oct 2026 hold
Modal view Above / hawkish Below / dovish
VIEW DISTRIBUTION
Percentages use only explicit, comparable public calls in the current set. Qualitative views, unmatched horizons and firms without a verified public call stay visible in the table but are excluded from the calculation.
SORT:
RATIONALE & SOURCE
Apollo
Buy-sideJun 2026Higher for longerExpects persistent inflation and higher-for-longer rates; no discrete meeting or year-end target is public.2026 Mid-Year Outlook ↗
Bank of America
Sell-side15 Oct 2026December unconfirmedIts published October-and-December two-hike path missed the October move. The December leg of that old forecast remains visible, but no post-FOMC BofA revision was verified; excluded from the comparable-call split.Reuters brokerage factbox ↗
Barclays
Sell-side15 Oct 20261 more hikeReuters' October factbox lists a 25bp December hike. The October hold is consistent with this path; no post-meeting revision has been verified.Reuters brokerage factbox ↗
BlackRock
Buy-side26 Oct 20261 more hikeExplicitly expects another hike by year-end, but says market pricing for a sustained tightening cycle is too hawkish. Replaces its older qualitative hold row.Weekly market commentary ↗
Blackstone
Buy-side—No public callNo current, theme-specific public call has been verified. The firm remains visible so the coverage gap is explicit.
BNP Paribas
Sell-side14 Sep 2026Hold after SepIts latest published path contained one 2026 hike. The timing had been December, so a post-meeting refresh is still needed.Reuters brokerage factbox ↗
Bridgewater
Buy-side—No public callNo current, theme-specific public call has been verified. The firm remains visible so the coverage gap is explicit.
CACIB
Sell-side5 Feb 2026HoldCrédit Agricole’s published scenario assumes a pause in Fed easing through 2026, with slight easing deferred to 2027.2026 economic scenario ↗
Citadel
Buy-side10 Oct 2026Hawkish biasCitadel Securities argues that resilient growth, fiscal spending and the energy shock keep the case for tighter policy compelling. This is a directional view, not a discrete year-end Fed hike forecast.Some Macro Thoughts: Capital, Costs ↗
Citi
Sell-side15 Oct 20261 more hikeCitigroup revised its call to a 25bp December hike after September CPI. The October hold is consistent with that path; a post-FOMC forecast revision has not yet been verified.Reuters brokerage factbox ↗
Deutsche Bank
Sell-side15 Oct 20261 more hikeReuters' October factbox lists a 25bp December hike. The October hold leaves that published call intact; no post-meeting revision has been verified.Reuters brokerage factbox ↗
Goldman Sachs
Sell-side2 Oct 20261 more hikeMoved its next and final hike forecast from October to December after the PCE and employment data; sees no need for extensive further tightening.Chief economist interview ↗
HSBC
Sell-side17 Sep 20261 more hikeExpects one additional 25bp hike in December, followed by a 4.00–4.25% target range throughout 2027.Post-FOMC market view ↗
J.P. Morgan
Sell-side25 Sep 20261 more hikeExpects another quarter-point hike in December, in line with the FOMC median, but not a longer-term hiking cycle.What’s the Fed’s next move? ↗
Morgan Stanley
Sell-side15 Oct 20261 more hikeReuters' October factbox lists a 25bp December hike. The October hold leaves that published call intact; no post-meeting revision has been verified.Reuters brokerage factbox ↗
Nomura
Sell-sideOct 20261 more hikeNomura's October outlook calls for a 25bp Fed hike in December, then an extended hold through 2027; the article gives no publication day.Central Banks Recalibrating Monetary Policies ↗
PIMCO
Buy-side22 Oct 20261 more hikeExpects an October hold, with a 25bp December hike the most likely next move; sees tightening as a recalibration rather than a sustained cycle.October Fed Meeting Preview ↗
Standard Chartered
Sell-side15 Oct 20261 more hikeAfter the September CPI release, favors an October hold and a December hike, with a second further hike before June 2027. This note preceded the September PPI release; it is not a post-PPI forecast revision.Daily Navigator (post-CPI) ↗
UBS
Sell-side26 Oct 20261 more hikeRetains an October hold followed by a December hike. Elevated oil and diesel costs keep inflation risks in focus, but an immediate increase is not required in its base case.Weekly Global ↗
Wells Fargo
Sell-side14 Sep 2026Hold after SepIts latest reported forecast contained one 2026 hike, now delivered in September.Reuters brokerage factbox ↗
CONVICTION AT THE EDGES
Divergent views
ABOVE / HAWKISHBuy-side
Apollo
Higher for longerExpects persistent inflation and higher-for-longer rates; no discrete meeting or year-end target is public.
Read source · Jun 2026 ↗ABOVE / HAWKISHSell-side
Bank of America
December unconfirmedIts published October-and-December two-hike path missed the October move. The December leg of that old forecast remains visible, but no post-FOMC BofA revision was verified; excluded from the comparable-call split.
Read source · 15 Oct 2026 ↗BELOW / DOVISHSell-side
BNP Paribas
Hold after SepIts latest published path contained one 2026 hike. The timing had been December, so a post-meeting refresh is still needed.
Read source · 14 Sep 2026 ↗ABOVE / HAWKISHBuy-side
Citadel
Hawkish biasCitadel Securities argues that resilient growth, fiscal spending and the energy shock keep the case for tighter policy compelling. This is a directional view, not a discrete year-end Fed hike forecast.
Read source · 10 Oct 2026 ↗BELOW / DOVISHSell-side
Wells Fargo
Hold after SepIts latest reported forecast contained one 2026 hike, now delivered in September.
Read source · 14 Sep 2026 ↗CROSS-FIRM WORKSPACE
Compare house views
Select two to four firms. Each cell preserves the published call, source date and house wording; use the source link for the full original context.
THEME
Citi
J.P. Morgan
BlackRock
MONETARY POLICYFed path after Oct 2026 holdConsensus: 1 more hike
1 more hike
HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARYCitigroup revised its call to a 25bp December hike after September CPI. The October hold is consistent with that path; a post-FOMC forecast revision has not yet been verified.
1 more hike
HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARYExpects another quarter-point hike in December, in line with the FOMC median, but not a longer-term hiking cycle.
1 more hike
HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARYExplicitly expects another hike by year-end, but says market pricing for a sustained tightening cycle is too hawkish. Replaces its older qualitative hold row.
RATES10Y UST outlookConsensus: 4.60%
3.90%
HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARYExplicit end-2026 target published before September’s Fed hike; the lowest point target in this set. No newer public replacement was verified.
4.70%
HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARYExplicit end-2026 target; higher policy yields and global factors were expected to anchor Treasury yields at elevated levels.
Favor short Treasuries
HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARYStill favors short-term Treasuries for income. Energy-security investment could increase competition for capital and push longer-term sovereign yields higher. Tactical allocation view, not an end-2026 yield target.
GROWTHUS 2026 growth regimeConsensus: Soft landing
2.1% GDP
HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARYContinued expansion, not recession; growth eases to 1.8% in 2027.
Resilient
HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARYLimited recession risk and constructive credit backdrop.
Resilient / uneven
HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARYGlobal growth has held up through the energy shock with support from AI investment and fiscal spending, but BlackRock sees Europe more exposed than the U.S. This is qualitative, not a U.S. GDP forecast.
PRICESUS inflation through Dec 2026Consensus: Sticky ~3%
3.2% headline
HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARYFull-year U.S. headline inflation forecast; expects moderation toward 1.7% in 2027.
3.4% core PCE
HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARYYear-end core PCE forecast, raised from 2.9% after the energy and supply shock.
Above pre-Covid
HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARYStill sees inflation settling above pre-pandemic levels as structural supply constraints persist; this is a qualitative long-run view, not a year-end PCE target.
FXUS dollar directionCommon thread: Two-way / firm now
DXY 100.88
HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARYExplicit year-end DXY forecast.
—
This coverage gap remains explicit.
Stable / softer
HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARYRate differentials explain the recent rebound, but BlackRock sees little room for a sustained rally and expects the dollar around current levels or moderately weaker as Fed tightening expectations ease.
GEOPOLITICSUS–Iran conflict spilloversCommon thread: Oil / inflation shock
Q4 Hormuz reopening
HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARYCiti Research's central case is a fourth-quarter reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lower oil prices. It warns that severe re-escalation or a prolonged closure would keep oil elevated and threaten cyclical sectors.
Energy premium persists
HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARYThe Q3 review says the conflict lifted oil, headline inflation and policy yields, yet earnings and growth helped global equities. This is a market assessment, not a forecast for conflict duration.
Downstream energy squeeze
HOUSE WORDING / SUMMARYWarns that thinning buffers and refining and shipping bottlenecks are raising delivered fuel costs. Sees some core-inflation spillover and greater European exposure; this is not a conflict-duration or year-end Brent forecast.
Calls retain their published definitions and horizons. Empty cells mean no current public theme-specific view has been verified; summaries are clearly labelled where a short verbatim excerpt is not available.
RESEARCH UNIVERSE
20-firm coverage list
J.P. MorganSell-sideCurrent public view
Goldman SachsSell-sideCurrent public view
CitiSell-sideCurrent public view
BarclaysSell-sideCurrent sourced view
Deutsche BankSell-sideCurrent public view
BNP ParibasSell-sideCurrent public view
HSBCSell-sideCurrent public view
Standard CharteredSell-sideCurrent public view
Morgan StanleySell-sideCurrent public view
Bank of AmericaSell-sideCurrent sourced view
Wells FargoSell-sideCurrent public view
UBSSell-sideCurrent public view
BlackRockBuy-sideCurrent public view
PIMCOBuy-sideCurrent public view
BlackstoneBuy-sideCurrent public view
BridgewaterBuy-sideNo public numeric target
CitadelBuy-sideCurrent sourced view
ApolloBuy-sideCurrent public view
CACIBSell-sidePublic 2026 scenario
NomuraSell-sideCurrent public view
A firm remains in the universe even when no recent primary public call is available. Private research can be added later from documents you provide; until then, the dashboard will not infer or fabricate a position.